Research

Published Papers

"The Financial Stability Case for Targeting Nominal GDP Targeting", Cato Journal, 2019

"Nominal GDP Targeting and the Taylor Rule on an Even Playing Field"  with Josh Hendrickson,  Journal  of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2019 (Working paper version) 

"The Great Divorce: The Federal Reserve's Move to a Floor System and Its Implication for Bank Portfolios",

Mercatus Policy Paper, 2018.

"Permanent vs Temporary Monetary Base Injections: Implications for Past and Future Fed Policy", Journal of Macroeconomics, 2017

(Quotes on permanent injections from earlier draft found here.)

"The Monetary Policy Origins of the Eurozone Crisis" International Finance,  2017  (Working paper version)

"The International Impact of the Fed when the United States is a Banker to the World", in Rules for International Monetary Stability: Past, Present, and Future, Hoover Fed Conference, 2016 

"The Regional Effects of Monetary Policy: the Case of the American South" Essays in Economic and Business History, 2016

 

"The Productivity Gap: Monetary Policy, the Subprime Boom, and the Post-2001 Productivity Surge" (with George Selgin and Berrak Bahadir) Journal of Policy Modeling, 2015.

Inflation Targeting: A Monetary Policy Regime Whose Time Had Come and Gone” Mercatus Center Policy Paper. June 2014

Great Spending Crashes”, (with Josh Hendrickson.) The BE Journal of Macroeconomics, Contribution Tier.  Volume 12, Issue 1. September, 2012.

 

The Monetary Superpower Hypothesis” in Boom and Bust Banking: the Causes and Cures of the Great Recession.  (With Chris Crowe) The Independent Institute, 2012.

 

Can Monetary Policy Influence Long-Term Interest Rates? It Depends”,  (with Ken Moon and Hol Toles), Economic Inquiry, 2011.

 

“The Stance of Monetary Policy: An Alternative Measure”, Applied Economics Letters, 2011.

 

One Nation Under the Fed? The Asymmetric Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy and Its Implications for the United States as an Optimal Currency Area”, The Journal of Macroeconomics, 2010

 

Monetary Policy and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads” (with Ken Moon and Hol Toles),  Applied Economic Letters, 2010

 

Aggregate Supply-Driven Deflation and Its Implications for Macroeconomic Stability”, Cato Journal, 2008.

 

The Postbellum Deflation and Its Lessons for Today”, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2007.

 

 

Working Papers

"Facts, Fears, and Functionality of NGDP Level Targeting" (May, 2019)

"NGDP as the Stance of Monetary Policy: A Practical Guide" (August, 2018). (Data for the Benchmark Paths)

"Transaction Asset Shortages" with Josh Hendrickson, (April, 2017)

"The Supply of Transactions Assets, Nominal Income, and Monetary Policy Transmission" with Josh Hendrickson (June, 2015)

 

 

Policy Pieces

(1) The Knowledge Problem in Economics: the Case for Nominal GDP Targeting, Mercatus on Policy Series, July 2017

(2) "The Fall and Future Rise of Interest Rates" Mercatus Colloquium on Interest Rates, November 29, 2016

Work in Progress

"Some Pleasant Monetarist Arithmetic: The Inflation Mystery and the Importance of  Regimes" with Brian Goff

“The Dynamic Effect of the Fed’s Large-Scale Asset Purchases: A VAR Investigation"

"Does the Quantity Theory Still Hold? 

 

Miscellaneous Papers

 

Book Review of Doug Irwin's Clashing Over Commerce: A History of U.S. Trade PolicyBusiness Economics, October, 2018.

Religious Change and Stability: Seasonality in Church Attendance from the 1940s to the 1990s,” Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, 2011.

The Dynamic Effects of Economic Shocks on Religiosity: Evidence from the Seventh-day Adventist Church”

 

Praying for a Recession: the Business Cycle and Religiosity in the United States