Research
Published Papers
"The Prospect of Fiscal Dominance: A New Quantity Theory Perspective" in Populism and the Future of the Fed (2022) (Working paper version).
"Upgrading the Fed's Operating Framework", Cato Journal, 2020
"The Financial Stability Case for Targeting Nominal GDP ", Cato Journal, 2019
"Nominal GDP Targeting and the Taylor Rule on an Even Playing Field" with Josh Hendrickson, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2019 (Working paper version)
"Permanent vs Temporary Monetary Base Injections: Implications for Past and Future Fed Policy", Journal of Macroeconomics, 2017
(Quotes on permanent injections from earlier draft found here.)
"The Monetary Policy Origins of the Eurozone Crisis" International Finance, 2017 (Working paper version)
"The International Impact of the Fed when the United States is a Banker to the World", in Rules for International Monetary Stability: Past, Present, and Future, Hoover Fed Conference, 2016
"The Regional Effects of Monetary Policy: the Case of the American South" Essays in Economic and Business History, 2016
"The Productivity Gap: Monetary Policy, the Subprime Boom, and the Post-2001 Productivity Surge" (with George Selgin and Berrak Bahadir) Journal of Policy Modeling, 2015.
“Great Spending Crashes”, (with Josh Hendrickson.) The BE Journal of Macroeconomics, Contribution Tier. Volume 12, Issue 1. September, 2012.
The Monetary Superpower Hypothesis” in Boom and Bust Banking: the Causes and Cures of the Great Recession. (With Chris Crowe) The Independent Institute, 2012.
“Can Monetary Policy Influence Long-Term Interest Rates? It Depends”, (with Ken Moon and Hol Toles), Economic Inquiry, 2011.
“The Stance of Monetary Policy: An Alternative Measure”, Applied Economics Letters, 2011.
“One Nation Under the Fed? The Asymmetric Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy and Its Implications for the United States as an Optimal Currency Area”, The Journal of Macroeconomics, 2010
Monetary Policy and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads” (with Ken Moon and Hol Toles), Applied Economic Letters, 2010
“Aggregate Supply-Driven Deflation and Its Implications for Macroeconomic Stability”, Cato Journal, 2008.
“The Postbellum Deflation and Its Lessons for Today”, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2007.
Policy Pieces
NGDP Targeting Related
"Facts, Fears, and Functionality of NGDP Level Targeting", Mercatus Policy Paper, October 2019
"The Causes and Cures of the 2021-2022 Inflation Surge", Discourse Magazine, October 2022.
The Stance of Monetary Policy: The NGDP Gap", Mercatus Policy Brief, April 2020
Quarterly updated data on NGDP Gap, Mercatus data site (Charts and Spreadsheets)
"NGDP Targeting in the United Kingdom", June 2020
The Knowledge Problem in Economics: the Case for Nominal GDP Targeting, Mercatus Policy Brief, July 2017
Fed's Operating System
"The Great Divorce: The Federal Reserve's Move to a Floor System and Its Implication for Bank Portfolios", (blog post summarizing this article) Mercatus Policy Paper, 2018.
The Repo Man Cometh, September 2019
ZLB and Monetary Policy
"COVID-19 Pandemic, Direct Cash Transfers, and the Federal Reserve" Special Policy Brief, March 2020 (Related longer article version).
Inflation Targeting
“Inflation Targeting: A Monetary Policy Regime Whose Time Had Come and Gone”, Mercatus Policy Paper, June 2014
Working Papers
"The Reliability of the NGDP Expectations Gap" with Andrew Martinez and Aexander Schibuola (2023)
"The Fate of FAIT: Salvaging the Fed's Framework" with Patrick Horan (2022)
"The Safe Asset Shortage and the Low Inflation of 2010-2019" (2021)
"Transaction Asset Shortages" with Josh Hendrickson, (April, 2017)
"Money Still Matters" with Josh Hendrickson, (July, 2015)
"The Supply of Transactions Assets, Nominal Income, and Monetary Policy Transmission" with Josh Hendrickson (June, 2015)
Miscellaneous Papers
“Religious Change and Stability: Seasonality in Church Attendance from the 1940s to the 1990s,” Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, 2011.
“The Dynamic Effects of Economic Shocks on Religiosity: Evidence from the Seventh-day Adventist Church”
“Praying for a Recession: the Business Cycle and Religiosity in the United States”