The charts below are two benchmark estimates of the neutral growth path of nominal GDP. The first estimated growth path is based off of a weighted five-year forecast of NGDP while the second measure is estimated using a consensus output gap measure. Deviations between these benchmark growth paths and actual nominal GDP provide a measure of the stance of monetary policy. Such deviations or "NGDP Gaps" are depicted in the second row of figures. 

 

The derivation and further application of these series is described in this note. The data for the two estimated series is available here and will be updated each quarter as new nominal GDP data becomes available.